DON'T IGNORE THE YIELD CURVE
Dec.6, 2018, 3PM | #bonds #yield curve #Powell #Federal Reserve
Over the past few days there’s been lots of chatter about the recent flattening of the yield curve. The rising of short term yields with the opposite move at the longer-...
TRYING TO SAVE THE ECONOMY WITH LOWER OIL
Nov.27, 2018, 10AM | #oil #economy
The other day President Trump tweeted the following:
Contrary to some of his tweets, this one seems to make sense. After all, the price of energy goes into everything. From t...
A HISTORY OF FIRST CUTS
Nov.26, 2018, 2PM | #stocks #Federal Reserve
The market is definitely torn about whether last week the Federal Reserve signaled a pause in their rate-tightening campaign. You know where I stand (they did), so there is li...
FED FINALLY BLINKS
Nov.22, 2018, 10AM | #stocks #Federal Reserve
The other day Stock Board Asset Macro Research’s Alastair Williamson tweeted the following chart with the accompanying comment, “The entire world is burning, and A...
DON'T SHORT THE QT HANGOVER
Nov.19, 2018, 11AM | #stocks #quantitative tightening
I love the ocean which is ironic as I live on a Great Lake more than 1,500 kilometers from the Atlantic. But you put me anywhere near an ocean and I guarantee it - I am jumpin...
ENERGY FUND TAKEN TO THE CHIPPER
Nov.13, 2018, 5PM | #energy #crude oil #nat gas
Crude oil. Ugly move lower over the past two weeks.
The market pundits will try to explain the price action. They will offer evidence of President Trump’s tweet as the c...
MID-TERM ELECTION CYCLE
Nov.5, 2018, 4PM | #stocks #midterms
There’s a lot of chatter going around today about how “since World War 2, there has not been a down period for the S&P 500 in the twelve months following the m...
OBI-ED UPDATE
Oct.26, 2018, 9AM | #stocks #Ed Yardeni
Chatting with my good trading buddy Patrick Ceresna of MacroVoices and BigPictureTrading fame yesterday and he said to me, “what’s with this crap (ok, he didn&rsqu...
AMERICA IS NOT AN ECONOMIC ISLAND
Oct.24, 2018, 1PM | #economy #stocks #bonds #G10
This morning my twitter-pal Boris Schlossberg from @FxFlow (and a must-follow btw) sent me the following message:
Boris, funny you should message me that comment as we were j...
THE LONG TREASURY VOL EXPERIMENT
Oct.23, 2018, 2PM | #bonds #volatility
Today I have decided to try something a little different, but before we start with my experiment, let me sketch out what’s driving this line of thinking.
I have long bel...
